Monday, September 29, 2008
Changing Direction
Friday, September 26, 2008
International capital mobility and the “Impossible Trinity”
The exchange rate is simply the relative price of currencies, e.g., it tells you how many Euros you can buy for a Dollar. It is determined in the foreign exchange market where trillions of dollars worth of currency traded each day. Because it affects prices of goods and services sold in the world market the exchange rate is one of the most important prices in an open economy. For instance a U.S importer of T.Vs from Japan will have to pay more for the imports if the Yen becomes more expensive in terms of the U.S dollars. If the exchange rates fluctuate drastically, it may reduce the incentives for international trade. The exchange rate also affects the prices of assets. If a Swedish citizen decides to buy U.S Government bond she would first have to buy dollars so that she can pay for the bond and then once the bond is matured she would have to buy back Swedish Kronor. If the price of the dollar depreciates, its relative value declines before the bond matures then the return on the bond in terms of Swedish Kronor decreases. The exchange rate therefore also affects the expected return on assets. For these reasons one may be attracted for countries to try to stabilize the exchange rate in order to promote international trade and detract foreign investments so that the economy can grow.
A government has two major policy tools at its disposal: fiscal policy and monetary policy. Fiscal policy concerns government expenditures and tax collection while monetary policy affects the interest rate in the economy. By lowering the interest rate the monetary authorities can expand the economy and put upward pressure on prices while raising the interest rate they can contract the economy and put downward pressure on prices.
In a country that allows full capital mobility monetary policy also has a direct effect on exchange rates. If a country wants to stabilize its exchange rates and use its monetary policy to stabilize the domestic economy it has to prevent capital from moving in and out of the country. If exchange rate stability and full capital mobility are considered essential monetary policy becomes ineffective. This is because the central bank’s only objective is to stabilize the exchange rate by setting the domestic interest rate equal to the interest rate of the country to which the currency is pegged. For example in the early 1990s the Mexican Peso was fixed to the Dollar. If the U.S interest rate was raised, Mexico’s central bank had to raise the interest rate as well. Monetary policy in Mexico was therefore effectively imported from the U.S. By pegging the exchange rate to a country with low inflation and solid monetary policy it is possible to reduce domestic inflation. For example Argentina suffered hyperinflation in the late 80s and early 90s but managed to bring it down to single digits by rigidly pegging to the U.S Dollar. Finally if a country wants to keep its monetary policy independence and allow for full capital mobility it has to sacrifice exchange rate stability. The U.S for example does not stabilize its exchange rate, instead the U.S allows for full capital mobility enabling the country to invest domestically using foreign funds but at the same time controlling monetary policy to stabilize the domestic economy. As a consequence the foreign exchange value of the Dollar fluctuates in response to changes in monetary policy and capital flows.
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
Will It Burst or Flatten Out in India?
Early last year a flat in Greater Noida or Gurgaon, bought with a bank loan to finance 80 – 85% of the cost would have the EMIs continuously go up since the purchase, thanks to a series of rate hikes by the RBI. The flat may have been purchased for a pure investment decision after hearing stories of skyrocketing returns made on property investments. However, the prices haven't climbed as expected and the interest outgo has made the property expensive. The owner is now left with the only option of selling at a loss. And given the global economic gloom, he is willing to take a hit. Several investors are stuck simply because there hasn't been enough price appreciation in the past one year.
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
Supplemental Insurance for Banks: A Myth?
Insurance is always available when there is nothing to fear, but it goes away when big trouble looms. A subsidiary of Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway company just announced (9/10) that it will stop offering supplemental deposit insurance to the 1500 banks it was covering. As you can see, it offered the insurance to make money, not to protect banks. Now that banks need protection, there is no more insurance.
Still, one can hardly blame an insurance company for getting out of the business. Insurance is supposed to provide a way for prudent people voluntarily to socialize their risks. But when profligacy puts everyone at risk, insurance is impossible. In a depression, insurance companies stop insuring because they fail. Washington Mutual bank, reportedly in trouble, is 7.5 times as big as the biggest bank that's ever failed in the U.S. Buffet is just acting ahead of the disaster. The government never acts ahead of disaster, so when the FDIC stops providing insurance, it will be because it has no choice.
Sunday, September 21, 2008
Erotica & Economics
A brain-scan study may help explain what is going through the minds of financial titans when they take risky monetary gambles: sex.
When young men are shown erotic pictures, they are more likely to make larger financial gambles than if they are shown a picture of something scary, such as a snake, or something neutral, such as a stapler. The arousing pictures light up the same part of the brain that lights up when financial risks are taken.
These results have been brought out in a study involving 15 heterosexual young men at Stanford University, focused on the sex-and-money hub, the V-shaped nucleus accumbens, which sits near the base of the brain and plays a central role in what is experienced as pleasure. When that hub is activated by the erotic images, the men are far more likely to bet high on a random chance game that would earn them either a dollar or a dime.
Stanford psychologist Brian Knutson, a lead author of the study, says “it is all about the power of emotion and arousal and financial decisions. The trigger does not have to be sex - it could be chocolate or a winning lottery ticket”. To quote … the link between sex and greed goes back hundreds of thousands of years, to men's evolutionary role as provider or resource gatherer to attract women.
The study conforms to recent research that indicates men shown a pornographic movie are more likely to make riskier sexual decisions. Another suggests straight men think less about their financial future after being shown pictures of pretty women. One still-to-be-published study at Harvard University found a link between higher testosterone levels and financial risk-taking.But the study conducted at Stanford, funded by the National Institutes of Health, went deeper, using functional magnetic resonance imaging machines. It is part of a new but growing field called neuroeconomics that attempts to take the hard-wired science of brain biology and mix it with the softer sciences of psychology and economics to figure out why people make the financial decisions they do.
An earlier study by the same team found that the brain's reward area lit up at about the same time as risky decision-making. The erotic pictures experiment is designed to find which is the cause and which is the effect. The answer: Lighting up the reward area, in this case with soft-core pictures, caused the risk-taking. The more activation there you have, the more prone you are to taking more risk. It could be a feedback loop. The flip side is that the photos of snakes and spiders activated the portion of the brain often associated with pain, fear and anger. And those people are more likely to bet low.
This all makes sense to Harvard economist Terry Burnham, author of the book "Mean Genes". Burnham said it could be all summed up in a famous line from the movie "Scarface". "In this country, you gotta make the money first. Then when you get the money, you get the power. Then when you get the power, then you get the women."
Saturday, September 20, 2008
Is Fed's Bailout Going To Be Dramatic?
If today’s BIG GAINS in National Oil Well Varco (12%) Weatherford International (+12%), Fluor Corporation (11%) Cameron International (10%), Apple (+4%) and Rimm (+4%) are indicative of mammoth sector shift that’s headed your way, this is a situation that you simply cannot ignore. And the shift may have already just begun!
As a result of the Fed bailout, interest rates on 30-year mortgages enjoyed their biggest weekly drop in 28 years, from 6.35% to 5.95%—spurring home sales throughout the U.S. While housing continues to collapse, we’re beginning to see signs of a rebound. In Southern California, for example, homes sales jumped 13.8% in July—the biggest jump in three years. We’re not just talking about California real estate rebounding. Some of the toughest states, like Ohio, are seeing a rebound in home sales as well. We’re not out of the woods yet, but thanks to falling mortgage rates, experts are estimating that a rebound in the housing sector could take place nationally in the early months of 2009.
When you consider that a weak dollar was one of the key factors behind rising fuel costs, a rising dollar will continue to push fuel prices lower, crimping inflation. In fact, today’s collapse in oil prices to $94 a barrel—and the rise in U.S's two top transportation stocks (+7% and +3%)—could be just a sneak preview of what’s headed your way. When you consider that U.S's two top transportation stocks are up 38% and 28% over the past 12 months, you can only imagine how much more profitable these companies will be in the weeks and months ahead.
Friday, September 19, 2008
Who Wants To Be The D-e-p-r-e-s-s-i-o-n President? Obama or McCain?
The truth about the economy is so bad that Barack Obama and John McCain might be changing their minds right about now. I’m betting neither one of them is looking forward to being tagged as the next Depression President. That’s right. D-e-p-r-e-s-s-i-o-n.
Even just typing the word makes me shudder. But at this point, the Americans would be foolish not to own up to the very real possibility. Wall Street understands. Year-to-date, Lehman Brothers is down 99%. American International Group is down 95%. Washington Mutual, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, down 94%, 98% and 99%, respectively.
These are not sniggering little companies. These are giants. These are some of the very pillars of American finance. Throw in Merrill Lynch, Citigroup and Bank of America, and it’s very plain that the foundation of U.S economy is crumbling. And as far as the average Joe or Jane is concerned, the economy is already in shambles.
And it’s going to get a whole lot worse. Worse? Yes, unemployment soared to 6.1% in August. That came as a surprise to economists. Home prices are down some 16% year over year. The magnitude of the drop surprised economists. Retail sales fell 0.3% in August. They were revised down 0.5% for July. Both numbers came as a surprise to economists.
Are you starting to see a trend here? All the eggheads and government wonks have consistently underestimated the depth and breadth of economic troubles. They said the housing problems would be “short-lived.” They said their financial system was “resilient and strong.” They said the stock market would “recover by the end of the year.” None of that is happening. And if you hold your breath waiting, it just might be the last breath you ever take. 2009 is going to be a devastating year for Main Street and Wall Street.
Thursday, September 18, 2008
Will Sugar Retain Its Sweetness?
Australia and Thailand had approached the WTO last November asking for details on the sugar export subsidy being provided by India. They had later threatened to drag India to the dispute settlement panel of the WTO if the subsidies were not withdrawn. This made agriculture and food minister Sharad Pawar reduce the period for the subsidy from April 1, 2009 earlier to September 30, 2008.
There is also pressure on Mr Pawar from within the government to remove the subsidy immediately to check inflation and sugar prices. The committee of secretaries had recommended last month that export subsidies should be withdrawn with immediate effect as they were contributing to inflation.
Continued pressure from WTO members would ensure the subsidies are not extended beyond September 30. The subsidy is given in the form of freight assistance to sugar mills. The government has been subsidising inland movement of sugar in coastal states to the extent of Rs 1,350 a tonne and Rs 1,450 a tonne for mills located in other states since last year.
It was aimed at providing support to the industry, which was hit by a 35-40% crash in prices. However, now with sugar prices rising more than 25% over the last few weeks, the subsidy has clearly outlived its utility.
The so-called “bailout” of American International Group!
Lehman Brothers. Merrill Lynch. AIG. The financial system is near total collapse. And the market could crash all the way down to Dow 8,000. AIG got caught in the “perfect storm.” I’m talking about the most successful insurance company on the planet, caught in the maelstrom of the subprime mess.
That’s why AIG’s credit ratings got slashed, which sent carrying costs soaring and pushed the company to the edge of bankruptcy. So in stepped the government – and wiped out billions in shareholder value.
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
It was a Sunday night massacre on Wall Street!
Bank of America? What a joke! That’s just another house of cards that could come crashing down at any moment. After all, these are truly desperate times. Analysts now admit that subprime losses will eventually total up to $1 TRILLION —and not even half that amount has been written off so far.
Frankly, this could be the end of the banking system as we know it. But it’s not just the financial sector that’s weighing on the stock market. The entire U.S. economy is riddled with risk. The retail sales numbers for August just came out. They fooled all the experts, who were looking for a 0.3% gain. They fell 0.3%, instead. What’s more, the July numbers were adjusted to a miserable minus 0.5%.
I won’t bore you with all the charts and graphs. But PLEASE, do take a moment to look at this one. Your wealth depends on it. It shows a rapidly-increasing percentage of companies are hitting the skids, in regards to sales. And if sales are dropping...earnings will follow them down...and so will stock prices.
What’s more, latest research shows:
- Companies can’t borrow money. The credit crunch is turning into a death grip.
- Companies are slashing capital spending to the bone.
- Companies aren’t hiring. Good luck if you expect the American consumer to turn this ship around. No jobs. No equity in their homes. Maxed out on credit cards. Forget about any soft landing to this CRASH.
Saturday, September 13, 2008
Will International Donors Open Their Wallets for Zimbabwe?
Friday, September 12, 2008
They Are Buzzing!!!
The law of demand and supply deem fit almost everywhere, and this case is no exception. The entire food-court resembled almost a competitive market; the competing teams resembling the sellers, their ideas the product, and other fellow students and peers the buyers. There were neither any entry/exit barriers nor information assymetry. The enthusiasm of the participants (in any form) made the event a crazy show.
Thursday, September 11, 2008
Gartner Says Indian IT Market To Reach US $110 Billion In 2012
India is poised for double-digit growth across many vertical markets, with financial services and communications organizations spending the most on IT, closely followed by services, manufacturing and government.
Sunday, September 7, 2008
The Economics of Corruption
To truly understand any economy, we need to know both that is recorded and the one that is hidden. The impact of corruption in an economy has rarely been recognized to its true potential. In the recent survey conducted by Transparency International India and the Centre for Media Studies, Delhi the total monetary value of petty corruption in India is estimated at Rs. 21,088 crore (approx. USD 4.734 billion). This study has used perception and actual experience of paying bribes as the key parameters.
Bihar has been rated as the most corrupt State, and the least corrupt State, according to the study, is Kerala where all the 11 public services considered for the study were ranked as the least corrupt. This has been attributed to extensive "decentralization" and the "more aware" citizen. Nevertheless Participatory Economics can be considered a panacea to the ailing state of affairs in India.
Saturday, September 6, 2008
"Brand Bengal" It's High Time To Rethink
West Bengal is one such state of India where a single political party and their allies have been the ruling government for more than three decades. The pace of industrialization in this left-liberal state has been nevertheless slow as compared to all other major states of India. The withdrawal of the Tatas from the Singur project is yet another plight, another result of political intrigues which is resulting in a pyrrhic victory for the opposition party. If the Tatas go, they will take with them almost everything that matters to Brand Bengal. Image and the big bucks. The first entity doesn't carry a price tag but the second one does: a whopping Rs 80,000 crore in investments.
The immediate loss will be over Rs 5,000 crore, including the investments on the ancillary units in Singur. The list would also include tier-II vendors, who will have no reason to be here once Ratan Tata moves out. What's more, the Tata brands like Tata Realty Infrastructure, Tata Metaliks and Maithon Power Limited might also take flight, amounting to a loss of at least Rs 10,000 crore. Besides, there are other bigtime investors who are already jittery. Bharat Forge, which had decided to invest big time in Bengal largely because of the Nano plant in Singur, is now in two minds. The company would have brought in Rs 6,500 crore. This top-of-the-line forging company had signed an MoU with the government earlier this year. Ever since trouble erupted in Singur, their response to the state industries department is: We'll get back.
Brand Bengal had attracted investment announcements of Rs 1,27,302 crore since the third quarter of the last financial year. But this target is now a distant dream. In case of a Tata pullout, there will be a question mark on the investment from nonferrous metal major Vedanta Group. That will be another Rs 16,000 crore gone. Then, there are steel majors who would have implemented their projects this year, but are apprehensive now. All these steel majors, including Adhunik (Rs 5,000 crore), Shyam Steel (Rs 8,000 crore), Jai Balaji (Rs 16,500 crore), Bhushan Steel (Rs 4,000 crore), and Abhijit Group (Rs 8,000 crore) may not be all that keen to invest.
Once the Tatas pullout it will send a negative signal to the investors' mind and they would either imitate the steps of the former or procrastinate their decision. The Tata Group is respected as an organization around the globe, and in India it is synonymous with "stability, sustainability, and reliability". A mere callous attitude of semi-literate politicians just for the sake of gaining political mileage would abjure the interest of the investors resulting into permanent damage to the economic growth of the state. It is high time that the people of Bengal give a second thought to building up "Brand Bengal"; if not now, then never!
Monday, September 1, 2008
India Inc Have Tougher Challenges Ahead
It’s not just the declining earning growth rate, but India Inc will now have to deal with the rising number of loss making companies and a larger quantum of loss. A study carried out by Financial Express with a sample of 3,496 quoted companies on BSE, reveals that around 825 firms (23.6%) made losses during April-June 2008. This is an 11.3% increase in the number reported during the same period last year. The number of loss-making companies was 741 (21.2%) during April-June 2007. And, it is not just the number of companies that has increased, even the quantum of losses has.
In terms of value, the loss amount of 825 companies was Rs 5,032 crore during April-June. The loss amount of 741 companies during the corresponding period of 2007 was Rs 2,054 crore.
An analyst from a rating agency said, “The profit performance of listed companies is affected due to inflation and higher fuel prices during the first quarter." It can be seen that although some large companies (except some refineries) delivered better earning performance, the same cannot be said for the small-cap corporates. This probably means that larger corporates have scaled themselves to rise up to the global competitive environment, whereas the small ones have been more susceptible to domestic environment alone.
During April-June 2008, top five loss-making companies are BPCL (Rs 1,067 crore), HPCL (Rs 888 crore), ITI (Rs 157 crore), Spice Comm (Rs 136 crore) and Dish TV (Rs 125 crore).
Similarly, during April-June 2007, top five loss-making companies were ITI (Rs 129 crore), Dish TV (Rs 90 crore), HPCL (Rs 87 crore), Spice Comm (Rs 63 crore) and Bajaj Hindustan (Rs 60 crore). Among top five loss-making companies, three companies—HPCL, ITI and Dish TV—are common during both quarters.
Among the industries studied, more than Rs 100-crore loss was registered during April-June 2008 by refineries, textiles, telecommunications, sugar, pharmaceuticals, NBFC, fertilisers, entertainment and IT sectors. Significant increase in loss was seen in the case of construction (Rs 4 crore during April-June 2007 to Rs 10 crore during April-June 2008.), diversified (Rs 38 crore to 93 crore), engineering (Rs 7 crore to Rs 32 crore), entertainment (Rs 125 crore to Rs 177 crore), NBFC (Rs 59 crore to Rs 158 crore), pharmaceuticals (Rs 42 crore to Rs 135 crore), refineries (Rs 93 crore to Rs1,955 crore), telecommunication (Rs 211 crore to Rs 414 crore) and textiles (Rs 179 crore to Rs 490 crore).
Refer: http://www.financialexpress.com/news/24--BSE-firms-made-losses-during-Q1/355527